HelioClim-3 Persistence Forecast - Validation results

Last update: Jul. 2017

 

The HelioClim-3 version 4 radiation values in real time and forecasts until the end of the current day -D- are compared to the BSRN measurements following the protocol of validation described here on SoDa. The 1 min BSRN station measurements are preliminarily qualified using the quality check procedure available here.

Figure 1: locations of the BSRN stations

Please find below the validation results for the Global Horizontal component (GHI) for different forecast horizons: 15 min ahead, 30 min ahead, 1 hour ahead, 2 hours ahead, 4 hours ahead, and 6 hours ahead. These validation results are available for the monthly, daily, hourly and 15 min time steps.

Quality assessment results of GHI 15 min ahead persistence forecast

HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
MONTHLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(kWh/m²)
Bias
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 29 81.2 2.0 (2.5%) 7.2 (8.8%) 0.995
Toravere 104 83.4 -2.1 (-2.6%) 7.7 (9.2%) 0.989
Lindenberg 37 90.0 -4.3 (-4.8%) 6.5 (7.2%) 0.997
Cabauw 112 87.9 -3.6 (-4.1%) 7.5 (8.6%) 0.994
Camborne 41 93.5 -1.2 (-1.3%) 3.4 (3.6%) 0.999
Palaiseau 93 98.1 3.6 (3.6%) 6.2 (6.3%) 0.998
Payerne 88 99.1 -8.1 (-8.2%) 10.1 (10.2%) 0.995
Carpentras 120 128.7 1.6 (1.2%) 4.4 (3.4%) 0.998
Cener 44 115.7 2.7 (2.4%) 4.4 (3.8%) 0.998
Sede Boqer 100 169.1 -11.3 (-6.7%) 13.3 (7.9%) 0.994
Tamanrasset 124 174.5 1.2 (0.7%) 8.1 (4.7%) 0.980
Brasilia 65 147.5 7.1 (4.8%) 9.9 (6.7%) 0.972
Sao Martinho da Serra 72 143.7 -0.3 (-0.2%) 5.4 (3.7%) 0.994
De Aar 11 172.1 -0.0 (-0.0%) 2.0 (1.1%) 0.999

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
DAILY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 885 2668.1 61.1 (2.3%) 462.5 (17.3%) 0.972
Toravere 2977 2829.8 -70.8 (-2.5%) 437.5 (15.5%) 0.979
Lindenberg 1110 2998.7 -143.9 (-4.8%) 393.7 (13.1%) 0.987
Cabauw 3313 2958.2 -122.3 (-4.1%) 390.7 (13.2%) 0.986
Camborne 1202 3181.3 -41.7 (-1.3%) 323.3 (10.2%) 0.990
Palaiseau 2814 3244.4 116.7 (3.6%) 332.2 (10.2%) 0.991
Payerne 2543 3345.3 -271.0 (-8.1%) 478.5 (14.3%) 0.986
Carpentras 3536 4378.6 52.8 (1.2%) 336.1 (7.7%) 0.991
Cener 1251 3987.1 94.1 (2.4%) 355.5 (8.9%) 0.990
Sede Boqer 2892 5763.5 -386.6 (-6.7%) 536.5 (9.3%) 0.982
Tamanrasset 3483 6001.3 42.0 (0.7%) 570.3 (9.5%) 0.923
Brasilia 1881 5247.4 245.4 (4.7%) 638.6 (12.2%) 0.900
Sao Martinho da Serra 2169 4780.0 -15.3 (-0.3%) 425.1 (8.9%) 0.984
De Aar 330 5724.0 0.4 (0.0%) 409.2 (7.1%) 0.981

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
HOURLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 11282 209.0 4.8 (2.3%) 65.8 (31.5%) 0.939
Toravere 35619 226.1 -5.1 (-2.3%) 62.1 (27.5%) 0.955
Lindenberg 13000 255.5 -12.4 (-4.8%) 61.9 (24.2%) 0.963
Cabauw 39110 250.6 -10.5 (-4.2%) 61.1 (24.4%) 0.962
Camborne 14371 265.9 -3.6 (-1.4%) 57.3 (21.5%) 0.970
Palaiseau 33138 275.4 9.7 (3.5%) 55.3 (20.1%) 0.973
Payerne 29016 290.4 -23.2 (-8.0%) 69.1 (23.8%) 0.967
Carpentras 42698 362.3 4.2 (1.2%) 51.0 (14.1%) 0.983
Cener 15144 333.1 7.7 (2.3%) 59.9 (18.0%) 0.976
Sede Boqer 32255 521.2 -34.2 (-6.6%) 67.9 (13.0%) 0.982
Tamanrasset 42197 503.3 3.5 (0.7%) 73.7 (14.6%) 0.975
Brasilia 22762 435.9 20.5 (4.7%) 116.4 (26.7%) 0.931
Sao Martinho da Serra 25941 400.0 -1.3 (-0.3%) 78.5 (19.6%) 0.968
De Aar 3791 496.5 0.1 (0.0%) 59.2 (11.9%) 0.982

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 44674 53.1 1.3 (2.4%) 20.8 (39.2%) 0.908
Toravere 140935 62.0 -1.7 (-2.7%) 21.2 (34.2%) 0.929
Lindenberg 50512 65.9 -3.1 (-4.8%) 21.6 (32.8%) 0.929
Cabauw 151714 64.9 -2.7 (-4.1%) 21.3 (32.8%) 0.929
Camborne 55813 68.7 -0.9 (-1.3%) 19.7 (28.7%) 0.945
Palaiseau 129087 70.9 2.5 (3.6%) 21.0 (29.7%) 0.939
Payerne 114493 76.2 -6.2 (-8.2%) 22.8 (29.9%) 0.944
Carpentras 164106 94.4 1.1 (1.2%) 17.2 (18.2%) 0.969
Cener 57978 87.8 2.1 (2.4%) 21.3 (24.2%) 0.951
Sede Boqer 128436 133.3 -8.8 (-6.6%) 20.3 (15.3%) 0.971
Tamanrasset 162628 133.0 0.9 (0.7%) 23.6 (17.7%) 0.958
Brasilia 87218 115.1 5.5 (4.8%) 38.5 (33.4%) 0.879
Sao Martinho da Serra 99160 105.2 -0.3 (-0.3%) 26.7 (25.4%) 0.942
De Aar 14635 129.3 -0.0 (-0.0%) 21.2 (16.4%) 0.962

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Quality assessment results of GHI 30 min ahead persistence forecast

HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
MONTHLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(kWh/m²)
Bias
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 29 81.2 2.0 (2.4%) 7.1 (8.7%) 0.995
Toravere 104 83.4 -2.1 (-2.5%) 7.6 (9.1%) 0.990
Lindenberg 37 89.9 -4.2 (-4.6%) 6.4 (7.1%) 0.997
Cabauw 112 87.9 -3.6 (-4.1%) 7.5 (8.6%) 0.994
Camborne 41 93.5 -1.2 (-1.3%) 3.3 (3.6%) 0.999
Palaiseau 93 98.1 3.6 (3.7%) 6.2 (6.3%) 0.998
Payerne 88 99.0 -7.9 (-8.0%) 9.9 (10.0%) 0.995
Carpentras 120 128.7 1.6 (1.2%) 4.5 (3.5%) 0.998
Cener 44 115.6 2.5 (2.2%) 4.3 (3.7%) 0.998
Sede Boqer 100 169.0 -11.5 (-6.8%) 13.5 (8.0%) 0.994
Tamanrasset 124 174.4 1.3 (0.8%) 8.3 (4.8%) 0.979
Brasilia 65 147.4 7.4 (5.0%) 10.2 (6.9%) 0.970
Sao Martinho da Serra 72 143.6 -0.2 (-0.2%) 5.7 (3.9%) 0.994
De Aar 11 172.0 -0.0 (-0.0%) 1.9 (1.1%) 0.999

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
DAILY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 885 2667.7 58.7 (2.2%) 462.8 (17.4%) 0.972
Toravere 2966 2831.9 -69.3 (-2.4%) 436.6 (15.4%) 0.979
Lindenberg 1110 2997.7 -140.0 (-4.7%) 394.6 (13.2%) 0.986
Cabauw 3312 2957.6 -122.6 (-4.1%) 395.8 (13.4%) 0.986
Camborne 1202 3180.5 -42.5 (-1.3%) 330.5 (10.4%) 0.990
Palaiseau 2814 3243.5 119.2 (3.7%) 336.3 (10.4%) 0.991
Payerne 2538 3344.1 -267.3 (-8.0%) 480.1 (14.4%) 0.986
Carpentras 3536 4377.4 52.9 (1.2%) 340.2 (7.8%) 0.990
Cener 1250 3985.9 88.5 (2.2%) 359.0 (9.0%) 0.990
Sede Boqer 2877 5773.8 -393.6 (-6.8%) 541.6 (9.4%) 0.982
Tamanrasset 3444 6024.3 46.4 (0.8%) 580.5 (9.6%) 0.919
Brasilia 1876 5247.2 256.3 (4.9%) 645.8 (12.3%) 0.898
Sao Martinho da Serra 2167 4778.4 -12.2 (-0.3%) 441.5 (9.2%) 0.983
De Aar 330 5722.0 0.4 (0.0%) 411.3 (7.2%) 0.981

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
HOURLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 11236 209.8 4.6 (2.2%) 70.0 (33.4%) 0.931
Toravere 35456 227.1 -5.1 (-2.2%) 65.1 (28.7%) 0.951
Lindenberg 12821 258.8 -12.2 (-4.7%) 68.5 (26.5%) 0.954
Cabauw 38608 253.7 -10.6 (-4.2%) 68.2 (26.9%) 0.953
Camborne 14219 268.6 -3.8 (-1.4%) 64.3 (24.0%) 0.962
Palaiseau 32734 278.6 10.0 (3.6%) 63.8 (22.9%) 0.964
Payerne 28373 296.6 -23.3 (-7.9%) 74.8 (25.2%) 0.960
Carpentras 41929 368.6 4.3 (1.2%) 57.9 (15.7%) 0.978
Cener 14818 340.0 7.4 (2.2%) 66.9 (19.7%) 0.969
Sede Boqer 30613 548.2 -36.5 (-6.7%) 72.4 (13.2%) 0.977
Tamanrasset 40469 523.6 3.9 (0.8%) 79.9 (15.3%) 0.969
Brasilia 21588 458.4 22.6 (4.9%) 123.2 (26.9%) 0.918
Sao Martinho da Serra 25153 411.8 -1.1 (-0.3%) 87.2 (21.2%) 0.960
De Aar 3713 506.5 0.1 (0.0%) 66.2 (13.1%) 0.977

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 44587 53.2 1.2 (2.3%) 22.6 (42.6%) 0.890
Toravere 140496 62.2 -1.6 (-2.6%) 22.5 (36.2%) 0.920
Lindenberg 50239 66.2 -3.1 (-4.6%) 24.1 (36.4%) 0.911
Cabauw 151005 65.2 -2.7 (-4.1%) 23.9 (36.6%) 0.910
Camborne 55592 68.9 -0.9 (-1.3%) 22.4 (32.5%) 0.929
Palaiseau 128534 71.2 2.6 (3.7%) 24.0 (33.8%) 0.920
Payerne 113485 76.8 -6.2 (-8.0%) 25.0 (32.6%) 0.930
Carpentras 163070 95.0 1.2 (1.2%) 19.6 (20.6%) 0.960
Cener 57526 88.4 1.9 (2.2%) 23.7 (26.9%) 0.938
Sede Boqer 126053 135.7 -9.2 (-6.7%) 21.6 (15.9%) 0.965
Tamanrasset 160096 135.1 1.0 (0.8%) 25.3 (18.8%) 0.950
Brasilia 85821 116.9 5.8 (5.0%) 39.7 (33.9%) 0.869
Sao Martinho da Serra 98082 106.3 -0.2 (-0.2%) 28.9 (27.2%) 0.931
De Aar 14518 130.3 -0.0 (-0.0%) 23.8 (18.2%) 0.952

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Quality assessment results of GHI 1 hour ahead persistence forecast

HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
MONTHLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(kWh/m²)
Bias
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 29 81.0 1.7 (2.1%) 6.7 (8.3%) 0.995
Toravere 104 83.2 -2.3 (-2.7%) 7.5 (9.0%) 0.990
Lindenberg 37 89.6 -4.1 (-4.6%) 6.2 (7.0%) 0.997
Cabauw 112 87.5 -3.7 (-4.3%) 7.6 (8.7%) 0.994
Camborne 41 93.2 -1.5 (-1.6%) 3.3 (3.6%) 0.999
Palaiseau 93 97.7 3.6 (3.7%) 6.1 (6.2%) 0.998
Payerne 88 98.6 -7.8 (-8.0%) 9.8 (9.9%) 0.996
Carpentras 120 128.2 1.3 (1.0%) 4.4 (3.4%) 0.998
Cener 44 115.1 2.0 (1.7%) 4.2 (3.6%) 0.998
Sede Boqer 99 169.2 -12.5 (-7.4%) 14.5 (8.6%) 0.994
Tamanrasset 123 174.1 1.0 (0.6%) 8.5 (4.9%) 0.978
Brasilia 64 147.0 7.5 (5.1%) 10.5 (7.1%) 0.967
Sao Martinho da Serra 72 142.9 -0.5 (-0.3%) 6.2 (4.4%) 0.993
De Aar 11 171.4 -0.4 (-0.2%) 2.0 (1.2%) 0.999

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
DAILY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 885 2661.6 49.9 (1.9%) 468.0 (17.6%) 0.971
Toravere 2925 2832.7 -72.7 (-2.6%) 442.3 (15.6%) 0.979
Lindenberg 1107 2992.7 -137.5 (-4.6%) 405.6 (13.6%) 0.985
Cabauw 3304 2949.0 -126.9 (-4.3%) 414.0 (14.0%) 0.984
Camborne 1202 3170.0 -49.8 (-1.6%) 353.9 (11.2%) 0.988
Palaiseau 2814 3230.9 118.7 (3.7%) 350.3 (10.8%) 0.990
Payerne 2496 3356.4 -265.8 (-7.9%) 493.5 (14.7%) 0.985
Carpentras 3536 4359.3 43.1 (1.0%) 354.7 (8.1%) 0.990
Cener 1241 3986.4 69.1 (1.7%) 371.8 (9.3%) 0.988
Sede Boqer 2821 5797.3 -430.1 (-7.4%) 574.5 (9.9%) 0.981
Tamanrasset 3353 6045.2 41.7 (0.7%) 599.7 (9.9%) 0.910
Brasilia 1853 5229.7 261.2 (5.0%) 661.6 (12.7%) 0.890
Sao Martinho da Serra 2160 4760.1 -22.0 (-0.5%) 488.1 (10.3%) 0.979
De Aar 330 5700.8 -11.9 (-0.2%) 421.0 (7.4%) 0.979

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
HOURLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 10852 216.4 4.1 (1.9%) 82.2 (38.0%) 0.904
Toravere 33554 238.7 -5.6 (-2.3%) 76.7 (32.1%) 0.932
Lindenberg 12168 271.0 -12.7 (-4.7%) 85.0 (31.4%) 0.928
Cabauw 36623 265.7 -11.6 (-4.4%) 85.6 (32.2%) 0.924
Camborne 13567 280.0 -4.6 (-1.7%) 81.9 (29.2%) 0.938
Palaiseau 30990 292.3 10.4 (3.6%) 83.0 (28.4%) 0.937
Payerne 27075 308.8 -23.9 (-7.7%) 90.0 (29.1%) 0.940
Carpentras 39552 388.2 3.6 (0.9%) 74.7 (19.2%) 0.962
Cener 13955 358.5 5.8 (1.6%) 83.3 (23.2%) 0.951
Sede Boqer 29148 571.7 -41.4 (-7.2%) 85.8 (15.0%) 0.964
Tamanrasset 38242 549.5 3.3 (0.6%) 93.3 (17.0%) 0.954
Brasilia 20462 478.7 24.3 (5.1%) 137.9 (28.8%) 0.892
Sao Martinho da Serra 23937 429.4 -1.9 (-0.4%) 105.7 (24.6%) 0.939
De Aar 3570 524.3 -1.1 (-0.2%) 83.3 (15.9%) 0.962

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 43609 54.2 1.1 (2.0%) 25.5 (46.9%) 0.860
Toravere 136252 63.9 -1.8 (-2.8%) 25.5 (39.9%) 0.897
Lindenberg 48436 68.4 -3.1 (-4.6%) 27.5 (40.3%) 0.884
Cabauw 145843 67.2 -2.9 (-4.3%) 27.5 (40.9%) 0.879
Camborne 53778 71.0 -1.1 (-1.6%) 26.1 (36.8%) 0.902
Palaiseau 124002 73.5 2.7 (3.7%) 27.7 (37.7%) 0.892
Payerne 109266 79.4 -6.3 (-8.0%) 28.7 (36.2%) 0.905
Carpentras 156704 98.4 1.0 (1.0%) 23.5 (23.8%) 0.940
Cener 55275 91.6 1.6 (1.7%) 27.1 (29.5%) 0.918
Sede Boqer 120994 140.7 -10.3 (-7.3%) 25.0 (17.7%) 0.950
Tamanrasset 152803 140.7 0.9 (0.6%) 28.6 (20.3%) 0.932
Brasilia 82044 121.4 6.2 (5.1%) 43.1 (35.5%) 0.838
Sao Martinho da Serra 94284 110.1 -0.4 (-0.4%) 33.0 (30.0%) 0.908
De Aar 14075 133.9 -0.3 (-0.2%) 27.2 (20.3%) 0.934

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Quality assessment results of GHI 2 hour ahead persistence forecast

HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
MONTHLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(kWh/m²)
Bias
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 29 79.6 0.8 (1.0%) 5.7 (7.2%) 0.995
Toravere 104 81.6 -3.0 (-3.7%) 7.4 (9.1%) 0.991
Lindenberg 37 87.3 -4.3 (-4.9%) 6.3 (7.2%) 0.997
Cabauw 111 86.0 -4.3 (-5.0%) 7.9 (9.2%) 0.995
Camborne 40 92.9 -2.3 (-2.5%) 3.9 (4.1%) 0.998
Palaiseau 93 95.1 3.1 (3.3%) 5.5 (5.8%) 0.998
Payerne 88 95.8 -8.1 (-8.4%) 9.8 (10.3%) 0.996
Carpentras 120 124.5 0.1 (0.0%) 4.1 (3.3%) 0.998
Cener 44 111.8 0.2 (0.1%) 4.0 (3.6%) 0.998
Sede Boqer 98 165.6 -15.8 (-9.6%) 17.9 (10.8%) 0.994
Tamanrasset 121 168.6 -0.1 (-0.1%) 8.7 (5.1%) 0.976
Brasilia 60 145.2 6.5 (4.5%) 10.1 (7.0%) 0.946
Sao Martinho da Serra 72 138.1 -2.0 (-1.5%) 7.5 (5.4%) 0.991
De Aar 11 165.6 -1.8 (-1.1%) 2.8 (1.7%) 0.999

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
DAILY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 869 2658.9 15.9 (0.6%) 497.9 (18.7%) 0.966
Toravere 2729 2822.4 -96.8 (-3.4%) 475.8 (16.9%) 0.977
Lindenberg 1103 2927.0 -143.8 (-4.9%) 452.5 (15.5%) 0.981
Cabauw 3277 2894.9 -145.7 (-5.0%) 473.3 (16.4%) 0.979
Camborne 1195 3111.5 -79.9 (-2.6%) 431.0 (13.9%) 0.982
Palaiseau 2798 3157.7 102.1 (3.2%) 400.3 (12.7%) 0.985
Payerne 2350 3340.5 -277.1 (-8.3%) 545.7 (16.3%) 0.980
Carpentras 3521 4248.6 -0.3 (-0.0%) 402.4 (9.5%) 0.986
Cener 1211 3932.3 6.4 (0.2%) 423.7 (10.8%) 0.984
Sede Boqer 2727 5736.0 -548.5 (-9.6%) 700.5 (12.2%) 0.975
Tamanrasset 3169 5914.8 9.1 (0.2%) 623.4 (10.5%) 0.895
Brasilia 1814 5065.9 220.4 (4.4%) 702.9 (13.9%) 0.857
Sao Martinho da Serra 2143 4623.9 -78.1 (-1.7%) 615.6 (13.3%) 0.965
De Aar 326 5523.2 -58.1 (-1.1%) 463.9 (8.4%) 0.974

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
HOURLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 10027 229.2 1.7 (0.8%) 102.6 (44.8%) 0.851
Toravere 30769 253.8 -7.9 (-3.1%) 98.4 (38.8%) 0.890
Lindenberg 11096 287.9 -14.3 (-5.0%) 108.9 (37.8%) 0.886
Cabauw 33411 282.3 -14.4 (-5.1%) 109.6 (38.8%) 0.877
Camborne 12410 297.7 -8.0 (-2.7%) 107.6 (36.1%) 0.893
Palaiseau 28257 310.4 9.7 (3.1%) 107.7 (34.7%) 0.896
Payerne 24511 328.9 -26.7 (-8.1%) 114.0 (34.7%) 0.903
Carpentras 36119 410.8 -0.1 (-0.0%) 99.0 (24.1%) 0.933
Cener 12748 379.3 0.0 (0.0%) 105.4 (27.8%) 0.921
Sede Boqer 27096 597.3 -55.7 (-9.3%) 120.3 (20.1%) 0.924
Tamanrasset 34571 580.2 0.1 (0.0%) 115.5 (19.9%) 0.928
Brasilia 18651 502.3 23.3 (4.6%) 166.6 (33.2%) 0.836
Sao Martinho da Serra 21887 451.5 -6.9 (-1.5%) 137.2 (30.4%) 0.898
De Aar 3255 553.0 -5.7 (-1.0%) 109.4 (19.8%) 0.933

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 40347 57.6 0.5 (0.8%) 29.9 (52.0%) 0.807
Toravere 124966 68.4 -2.6 (-3.7%) 30.7 (44.9%) 0.852
Lindenberg 44159 73.2 -3.6 (-4.9%) 32.7 (44.7%) 0.840
Cabauw 132988 71.8 -3.6 (-5.0%) 32.7 (45.5%) 0.831
Camborne 49116 76.0 -1.9 (-2.6%) 31.8 (41.8%) 0.855
Palaiseau 113060 78.5 2.6 (3.3%) 32.8 (41.8%) 0.850
Payerne 99064 85.1 -7.2 (-8.4%) 34.2 (40.2%) 0.865
Carpentras 142912 104.8 0.0 (0.0%) 28.8 (27.5%) 0.908
Cener 50285 97.8 0.1 (0.1%) 32.0 (32.7%) 0.883
Sede Boqer 112025 148.2 -14.1 (-9.5%) 33.2 (22.4%) 0.906
Tamanrasset 138086 149.6 -0.0 (-0.0%) 34.0 (22.7%) 0.899
Brasilia 74643 128.4 5.9 (4.6%) 50.0 (39.0%) 0.773
Sao Martinho da Serra 86034 116.6 -1.8 (-1.5%) 40.3 (34.6%) 0.861
De Aar 12827 142.0 -1.5 (-1.1%) 33.0 (23.2%) 0.899

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Quality assessment results of GHI 4 hour ahead persistence forecast

HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
MONTHLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(kWh/m²)
Bias
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 28 73.6 -1.3 (-1.7%) 4.6 (6.2%) 0.995
Toravere 92 80.5 -5.1 (-6.4%) 8.2 (10.1%) 0.991
Lindenberg 34 81.0 -4.2 (-5.1%) 6.6 (8.2%) 0.996
Cabauw 100 81.2 -5.0 (-6.2%) 8.2 (10.1%) 0.995
Camborne 36 88.6 -4.0 (-4.5%) 6.1 (6.9%) 0.997
Palaiseau 92 82.3 2.5 (3.0%) 4.8 (5.8%) 0.998
Payerne 77 89.1 -8.5 (-9.5%) 10.0 (11.2%) 0.996
Carpentras 118 106.8 -2.1 (-2.0%) 4.3 (4.0%) 0.998
Cener 39 99.4 -2.7 (-2.7%) 5.7 (5.7%) 0.997
Sede Boqer 91 143.0 -20.9 (-14.6%) 23.4 (16.4%) 0.993
Tamanrasset 106 142.9 -1.9 (-1.3%) 7.9 (5.5%) 0.979
Brasilia 55 121.6 3.2 (2.7%) 8.5 (7.0%) 0.878
Sao Martinho da Serra 71 115.0 -4.6 (-4.0%) 9.4 (8.2%) 0.987
De Aar 11 136.6 -3.9 (-2.9%) 4.9 (3.6%) 0.999

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
DAILY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 596 3182.0 -49.7 (-1.6%) 720.1 (22.6%) 0.906
Toravere 1232 3830.1 -206.0 (-5.4%) 684.7 (17.9%) 0.946
Lindenberg 638 3831.1 -186.2 (-4.9%) 730.1 (19.1%) 0.915
Cabauw 1919 3750.1 -272.4 (-7.3%) 757.3 (20.2%) 0.910
Camborne 725 3919.2 -189.1 (-4.8%) 759.6 (19.4%) 0.918
Palaiseau 1682 3955.1 113.2 (2.9%) 666.7 (16.9%) 0.923
Payerne 1148 4429.8 -405.4 (-9.2%) 819.9 (18.5%) 0.923
Carpentras 2229 4890.0 -98.0 (-2.0%) 606.4 (12.4%) 0.940
Cener 729 4611.5 -165.9 (-3.6%) 643.3 (13.9%) 0.932
Sede Boqer 1158 6086.9 -914.3 (-15.0%) 1077.4 (17.7%) 0.877
Tamanrasset 2178 5246.6 -54.9 (-1.0%) 619.9 (11.8%) 0.862
Brasilia 1487 4261.8 99.6 (2.3%) 809.3 (19.0%) 0.705
Sao Martinho da Serra 1344 4777.8 -207.5 (-4.3%) 922.3 (19.3%) 0.874
De Aar 188 5501.1 -117.0 (-2.1%) 626.2 (11.4%) 0.932

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
HOURLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 8265 247.0 -4.5 (-1.8%) 133.2 (53.9%) 0.764
Toravere 24995 271.3 -13.3 (-4.9%) 132.5 (48.8%) 0.816
Lindenberg 8883 304.2 -15.4 (-5.1%) 140.9 (46.3%) 0.825
Cabauw 26785 299.4 -18.2 (-6.1%) 140.0 (46.8%) 0.818
Camborne 10016 317.5 -15.1 (-4.8%) 139.7 (44.0%) 0.837
Palaiseau 22653 326.6 9.3 (2.8%) 137.2 (42.0%) 0.846
Payerne 19567 345.0 -31.3 (-9.1%) 144.9 (42.0%) 0.857
Carpentras 29067 427.4 -8.5 (-2.0%) 128.5 (30.1%) 0.898
Cener 10253 393.3 -12.1 (-3.1%) 132.5 (33.7%) 0.887
Sede Boqer 21475 616.2 -87.4 (-14.2%) 187.4 (30.4%) 0.829
Tamanrasset 27336 580.6 -1.8 (-0.3%) 146.4 (25.2%) 0.901
Brasilia 14946 498.6 18.5 (3.7%) 197.6 (39.6%) 0.779
Sao Martinho da Serra 17580 457.8 -18.2 (-4.0%) 178.2 (38.9%) 0.840
De Aar 2604 563.9 -15.9 (-2.8%) 141.7 (25.1%) 0.899

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 33294 62.6 -1.2 (-1.8%) 37.3 (59.6%) 0.718
Toravere 101624 74.3 -4.6 (-6.1%) 39.8 (53.6%) 0.770
Lindenberg 35311 78.6 -4.0 (-5.1%) 40.5 (51.5%) 0.777
Cabauw 106472 77.3 -4.7 (-6.0%) 40.3 (52.1%) 0.769
Camborne 39540 82.1 -3.8 (-4.6%) 39.7 (48.3%) 0.795
Palaiseau 90662 83.8 2.5 (3.0%) 40.1 (47.8%) 0.797
Payerne 79044 90.8 -8.7 (-9.5%) 42.1 (46.4%) 0.814
Carpentras 114704 110.8 -2.2 (-2.0%) 36.3 (32.7%) 0.868
Cener 40226 103.5 -3.1 (-3.0%) 39.1 (37.8%) 0.842
Sede Boqer 89485 154.9 -22.5 (-14.5%) 50.4 (32.6%) 0.798
Tamanrasset 108992 152.6 -0.8 (-0.5%) 42.4 (27.8%) 0.865
Brasilia 59828 129.9 4.2 (3.3%) 58.4 (44.9%) 0.711
Sao Martinho da Serra 68743 120.7 -5.0 (-4.1%) 51.1 (42.3%) 0.795
De Aar 10228 146.9 -4.2 (-2.9%) 41.6 (28.3%) 0.856

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Quality assessment results of GHI 6 hour ahead persistence forecast

HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
MONTHLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(kWh/m²)
Bias
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 17 84.6 -3.7 (-4.4%) 6.8 (8.1%) 0.976
Toravere 43 96.9 -8.4 (-8.7%) 10.3 (10.7%) 0.975
Lindenberg 18 95.7 -5.0 (-5.2%) 8.5 (8.9%) 0.970
Cabauw 55 94.3 -7.6 (-8.1%) 10.0 (10.6%) 0.976
Camborne 20 99.9 -6.7 (-6.7%) 9.7 (9.7%) 0.976
Palaiseau 48 98.4 3.2 (3.2%) 5.8 (5.9%) 0.982
Payerne 34 105.6 -10.3 (-9.7%) 11.2 (10.6%) 0.981
Carpentras 57 121.8 -2.9 (-2.3%) 5.0 (4.1%) 0.991
Cener 19 112.5 -5.9 (-5.2%) 8.2 (7.3%) 0.984
Sede Boqer 29 145.4 -30.8 (-21.2%) 31.3 (21.5%) 0.912
Tamanrasset 34 123.7 2.4 (1.9%) 7.1 (5.8%) 0.827
Brasilia 20 88.1 3.0 (3.4%) 8.0 (9.1%) 0.666
Sao Martinho da Serra 34 111.2 -2.3 (-2.1%) 9.3 (8.4%) 0.938
De Aar 5 127.3 -3.4 (-2.7%) 4.6 (3.6%) 0.997

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
DAILY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 164 4051.1 -285.8 (-7.1%) 1073.3 (26.5%) 0.706
Toravere 163 5524.7 -469.6 (-8.5%) 840.9 (15.2%) 0.838
Lindenberg 65 4946.5 91.1 (1.8%) 921.0 (18.6%) 0.547
Cabauw 109 4994.5 -291.2 (-5.8%) 867.6 (17.4%) 0.740
Camborne 73 5147.7 -498.1 (-9.7%) 1052.9 (20.5%) 0.743
Palaiseau 77 4748.7 33.1 (0.7%) 623.0 (13.1%) 0.862
Payerne 0 NaN NaN (NaN%) NaN (NaN%) NaN
Carpentras 0 NaN NaN (NaN%) NaN (NaN%) NaN
Cener 0 NaN NaN (NaN%) NaN (NaN%) NaN
Sede Boqer 0 NaN NaN (NaN%) NaN (NaN%) NaN
Tamanrasset 0 NaN NaN (NaN%) NaN (NaN%) NaN
Brasilia 0 NaN NaN (NaN%) NaN (NaN%) NaN
Sao Martinho da Serra 0 NaN NaN (NaN%) NaN (NaN%) NaN
De Aar 0 NaN NaN (NaN%) NaN (NaN%) NaN

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
HOURLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 6503 246.2 -9.6 (-3.9%) 150.9 (61.3%) 0.712
Toravere 19547 263.7 -17.4 (-6.6%) 149.5 (56.7%) 0.772
Lindenberg 6663 292.0 -14.5 (-5.0%) 153.7 (52.6%) 0.791
Cabauw 20153 291.2 -20.0 (-6.9%) 151.7 (52.1%) 0.791
Camborne 7613 308.9 -19.9 (-6.4%) 155.2 (50.2%) 0.810
Palaiseau 17022 311.4 10.0 (3.2%) 147.1 (47.2%) 0.826
Payerne 14763 323.4 -31.3 (-9.7%) 158.0 (48.9%) 0.831
Carpentras 21989 396.7 -13.3 (-3.4%) 137.0 (34.5%) 0.891
Cener 7709 362.5 -19.6 (-5.4%) 140.0 (38.6%) 0.879
Sede Boqer 15454 559.2 -109.4 (-19.6%) 223.2 (39.9%) 0.781
Tamanrasset 20964 497.4 3.3 (0.7%) 149.7 (30.1%) 0.894
Brasilia 11193 419.2 15.1 (3.6%) 192.0 (45.8%) 0.760
Sao Martinho da Serra 13228 403.9 -23.1 (-5.7%) 184.5 (45.7%) 0.816
De Aar 1944 499.8 -22.5 (-4.5%) 146.7 (29.3%) 0.895

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HelioClim-3 v4 persistence -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m²)
Bias
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
Lerwick 26304 63.0 -2.6 (-4.2%) 41.7 (66.1%) 0.669
Toravere 79544 73.6 -6.3 (-8.5%) 45.3 (61.5%) 0.719
Lindenberg 26432 77.0 -3.8 (-5.0%) 44.2 (57.5%) 0.742
Cabauw 79966 76.4 -5.2 (-6.9%) 43.7 (57.2%) 0.742
Camborne 29942 81.3 -5.1 (-6.3%) 43.7 (53.8%) 0.767
Palaiseau 68164 81.4 2.8 (3.4%) 43.0 (52.9%) 0.777
Payerne 59513 87.1 -8.9 (-10.2%) 46.0 (52.8%) 0.787
Carpentras 86407 105.0 -3.4 (-3.3%) 38.9 (37.1%) 0.861
Cener 30034 98.0 -5.1 (-5.2%) 41.4 (42.2%) 0.836
Sede Boqer 65356 143.0 -28.6 (-20.0%) 60.2 (42.1%) 0.747
Tamanrasset 83064 133.4 0.5 (0.4%) 43.9 (32.9%) 0.860
Brasilia 44838 112.0 3.3 (3.0%) 57.8 (51.6%) 0.698
Sao Martinho da Serra 51391 109.4 -6.3 (-5.8%) 53.8 (49.2%) 0.770
De Aar 7584 133.2 -6.0 (-4.5%) 43.6 (32.8%) 0.853

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