HelioClim-3 Similarity Forecast - Validation results | Last update: Jul. 2017 |
Validation results for the Global Horizontal Irradiation values and for different time steps (monthly, daily, hourly and 15 min data). To produce these results, the HelioClim-3 version 4 Solar Similarity Forecast data at D+1 have been compared to the BSRN stations (see illustration below).
NB: we adopted the validation protocol and the quality check procedure described on the SoDa website.
Figure 1: locations of the BSRN stations
Quality assessment results of GHI values
| HelioClim-3 v4 Solar Similarity Forecast service -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations MONTHLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION | ||||||||
| Station | Number of values | Mean - BSRN - (kWh/m2) | Bias HC3v4 (kWh/m2) (relative in %) | Bias Forecast (kWh/m2) (relative in %) | RMSE HC3v4 (kWh/m2) (relative in %) | RMSE Forecast (kWh/m2) (relative in %) | Correl. coeff. HC3v4 | Correl. coeff. Forecast |
| Toravere | 50 | 86.9 | -2.8 (-3.2%) | -2.4 (-2.8%) | 8.3 (9.6%) | 11.1 (12.8%) | 0.987 | 0.974 |
| Cabauw | 65 | 88.2 | -3.1 (-3.5%) | -3.7 (-4.2%) | 7.3 (8.3%) | 12.0 (13.6%) | 0.994 | 0.980 |
| Palaiseau | 54 | 103.7 | 3.5 (3.4%) | 2.6 (2.5%) | 6.0 (5.8%) | 11.9 (11.5%) | 0.998 | 0.981 |
| Payerne | 29 | 107.8 | -8.5 (-7.8%) | -11.0 (-10.2%) | 10.1 (9.4%) | 16.2 (15.0%) | 0.996 | 0.985 |
| Carpentras | 61 | 130.0 | 1.3 (1.0%) | -0.4 (-0.3%) | 3.8 (2.9%) | 9.2 (7.1%) | 0.999 | 0.990 |
| Sede Boqer | 44 | 166.9 | -11.7 (-7.0%) | -12.9 (-7.8%) | 13.9 (8.3%) | 14.2 (8.5%) | 0.992 | 0.995 |
| Tamanrasset | 65 | 159.9 | 0.1 (0.1%) | 0.2 (0.1%) | 8.1 (5.1%) | 10.6 (6.6%) | 0.973 | 0.953 |
| Brasilia | 27 | 144.8 | 5.7 (4.0%) | 8.5 (5.8%) | 7.7 (5.3%) | 12.6 (8.7%) | 0.989 | 0.958 |
| Sao Martinho da Serra | 32 | 141.2 | -1.9 (-1.3%) | -3.5 (-2.5%) | 4.2 (3.0%) | 10.9 (7.8%) | 0.997 | 0.978 |
| HelioClim-3 v4 Solar Similarity Forecast service -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations DAILY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION | ||||||||
| Station | Number of values | Mean - BSRN - (Wh/m2) | Bias HC3v4 (Wh/m2) (relative in %) | Bias Forecast (Wh/m2) (relative in %) | RMSE HC3v4 (Wh/m2) (relative in %) | RMSE Forecast (Wh/m2) (relative in %) | Correl. coeff. HC3v4 | Correl. coeff. Forecast |
| Toravere | 1481 | 2795.3 | -82.1 (-2.9%) | -56.4 (-2.0%) | 445.3 (15.9%) | 1140.4 (40.8%) | 0.978 | 0.843 |
| Cabauw | 1946 | 2940.1 | -103.6 (-3.5%) | -123.1 (-4.2%) | 378.1 (12.9%) | 1106.9 (37.6%) | 0.987 | 0.868 |
| Palaiseau | 1639 | 3412.4 | 114.2 (3.3%) | 101.1 (3.0%) | 332.4 (9.7%) | 1144.7 (33.5%) | 0.991 | 0.867 |
| Payerne | 877 | 3558.8 | -278.9 (-7.8%) | -360.5 (-10.1%) | 467.7 (13.1%) | 1263.8 (35.5%) | 0.987 | 0.862 |
| Carpentras | 1824 | 4359.2 | 43.5 (1.0%) | -14.4 (-0.3%) | 319.3 (7.3%) | 1168.1 (26.8%) | 0.992 | 0.881 |
| Sede Boqer | 1287 | 5647.8 | -398.2 (-7.1%) | -418.3 (-7.4%) | 553.4 (9.8%) | 741.6 (13.1%) | 0.981 | 0.949 |
| Tamanrasset | 1723 | 5624.6 | 6.3 (0.1%) | 25.3 (0.4%) | 566.3 (10.1%) | 902.5 (16.0%) | 0.908 | 0.762 |
| Brasilia | 761 | 5073.7 | 194.7 (3.8%) | 306.4 (6.0%) | 583.5 (11.5%) | 1046.0 (20.6%) | 0.911 | 0.662 |
| Sao Martinho da Serra | 970 | 4721.2 | -67.2 (-1.4%) | -148.5 (-3.1%) | 405.3 (8.6%) | 1742.7 (36.9%) | 0.986 | 0.672 |
| HelioClim-3 v4 Solar Similarity Forecast service -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations HOURLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION | ||||||||
| Station | Number of values | Mean - BSRN - (Wh/m2) | Bias HC3v4 (Wh/m2) (relative in %) | Bias Forecast (Wh/m2) (relative in %) | RMSE HC3v4 (Wh/m2) (relative in %) | RMSE Forecast (Wh/m2) (relative in %) | Correl. coeff. HC3v4 | Correl. coeff. Forecast |
| Toravere | 18095 | 221.9 | -6.0 (-2.7%) | -3.3 (-1.5%) | 60.3 (27.2%) | 126.5 (57.0%) | 0.958 | 0.800 |
| Cabauw | 22886 | 249.6 | -9.0 (-3.6%) | -10.8 (-4.3%) | 56.7 (22.7%) | 126.9 (50.8%) | 0.968 | 0.821 |
| Palaiseau | 19680 | 285.1 | 9.3 (3.3%) | 6.6 (2.3%) | 51.4 (18.0%) | 134.1 (47.1%) | 0.978 | 0.830 |
| Payerne | 10167 | 306.7 | -24.3 (-7.9%) | -31.6 (-10.3%) | 67.3 (22.0%) | 144.3 (47.1%) | 0.970 | 0.839 |
| Carpentras | 21959 | 362.3 | 3.5 (1.0%) | -1.9 (-0.5%) | 47.2 (13.0%) | 133.7 (36.9%) | 0.986 | 0.878 |
| Sede Boqer | 14417 | 505.6 | -35.3 (-7.0%) | -39.0 (-7.7%) | 69.2 (13.7%) | 98.0 (19.4%) | 0.982 | 0.957 |
| Tamanrasset | 20996 | 479.2 | 0.7 (0.1%) | 0.4 (0.1%) | 71.7 (15.0%) | 120.6 (25.2%) | 0.974 | 0.926 |
| Brasilia | 9428 | 417.1 | 16.4 (3.9%) | 24.2 (5.8%) | 110.4 (26.5%) | 154.2 (37.0%) | 0.933 | 0.860 |
| Sao Martinho da Serra | 11567 | 396.3 | -5.8 (-1.5%) | -13.0 (-3.3%) | 73.3 (18.5%) | 190.6 (48.1%) | 0.971 | 0.787 |
| HelioClim-3 v4 Solar Similarity Forecast service -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations 15 MIN IRRADIATION | ||||||||
| Station | Number of values | Mean - BSRN - (Wh/m2) | Bias HC3v4 (Wh/m2) (relative in %) | Bias Forecast (Wh/m2) (relative in %) | RMSE HC3v4 (Wh/m2) (relative in %) | RMSE Forecast (Wh/m2) (relative in %) | Correl. coeff. HC3v4 | Correl. coeff. Forecast |
| Toravere | 71550 | 61.6 | -2.0 (-3.2%) | -1.7 (-2.8%) | 20.4 (33.2%) | 36.0 (58.5%) | 0.935 | 0.779 |
| Cabauw | 88643 | 64.7 | -2.3 (-3.5%) | -2.7 (-4.2%) | 19.0 (29.4%) | 35.3 (54.6%) | 0.944 | 0.787 |
| Palaiseau | 76660 | 73.4 | 2.4 (3.3%) | 1.8 (2.5%) | 18.1 (24.7%) | 37.5 (51.1%) | 0.957 | 0.795 |
| Payerne | 39758 | 78.6 | -6.2 (-7.8%) | -8.0 (-10.2%) | 21.3 (27.1%) | 39.2 (49.9%) | 0.951 | 0.814 |
| Carpentras | 84383 | 94.4 | 1.0 (1.0%) | -0.4 (-0.4%) | 15.6 (16.5%) | 36.2 (38.3%) | 0.975 | 0.856 |
| Sede Boqer | 56695 | 130.7 | -9.2 (-7.0%) | -10.1 (-7.7%) | 20.7 (15.8%) | 27.2 (20.8%) | 0.970 | 0.943 |
| Tamanrasset | 80956 | 128.4 | 0.1 (0.1%) | 0.1 (0.1%) | 23.0 (17.9%) | 34.8 (27.1%) | 0.958 | 0.903 |
| Brasilia | 36273 | 110.2 | 4.6 (4.2%) | 6.7 (6.0%) | 37.1 (33.7%) | 45.7 (41.5%) | 0.881 | 0.807 |
| Sao Martinho da Serra | 44186 | 104.3 | -1.4 (-1.4%) | -3.2 (-3.1%) | 24.7 (23.7%) | 51.9 (49.8%) | 0.949 | 0.749 |